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Crisis in Turkey: will Erdogan be toppled by the military?

23 марта 2016
23.03.2016 - 20:00
Crisis in Turkey: will Erdogan be toppled by the military?

Experts have been pointing out the rise of social and political tension inside Turkey recently. Deep economic crisis, society ideological polarization, whole range of military threats and governments’ policy which isn’t focused on national interests have led to the fact that Erdogan’s politial future is getting more and more cloudy.
The society is getting more and more frustrated with Ankara’s policy which is shifting the focus onto phantom menaces and mythical enemies instead of dealing with really acute Turkish problems.
The people are seriously intimidated with acts of terror becoming more and more frequent, with the prospect of real-life warfare on Southern borders which inevitably complicates social and economic situation.
The military establishment and the other security officials are the ones who feel confident. Under the present circumstances Turkish military management are fully aware of their significance and government’s dependence on them.
Erdogan himself understands that perfectly that’s why he’s making generous promises and spending state finance. However expenses insrease and whole range of other measures aimed at Defense Ministry pleasing cannot last forever, sooner or later frustration with government reaches even that point. In this case there is real threat of military coup d’etat.
Let’s not forget of the previous relantionship crises between governemnt and the military. In 1980 Chierf of General Staff General Kenan Evren made the third military coup in recent history (after the coups in 1960 and 1971) after which military establishment took almost absolute power for three years through the so called National Security Comittee.
The experts believe that the military still refrain from direct actions because of lack of reliance on wide public (because it was the wide public, the Turkish people they relied upon in 1980). However support from the side of people is growing and Turkish military leaders cannot but notice that.
Looking at the endless meetings and protests in the biggest Turkish cities caused by growing frustration with civil rights and freedoms oppression, media cenorship and dropped living standards, one may be sure the Turkish people are standing behind army’s back if the army turns the guns on the acting government.
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